NEWS ANALYSIS FROM GERMANY

September 2024: Earlier this year, millions of people took to the streets in all parts of Germany to make it clear that right-wing ideology has no place in the country.

 

• Each year, to commemorate the Stonewall Uprising in New York in 1970, large and small German towns and cities celebrate cultural and social diversity.

 

• The world's most successful German companies and employers warned that a political shift to the right would severely damage the country's international reputation and cost jobs.

 

• And last week, Edeka, Germany's largest retailer, took out full-page adverts advising its customers not to vote for right-wing parties.

 

But despite the large pro-diversity protests and numerous and strong warnings from German industry as well as from the country’s Churches, Sports and the Arts, yesterday (1 September 2024) a third of voters in Thuringia and Saxony gave their vote to the extreme right-wing AfD party (Alternative für Deutschland). Incidentally, the results in both states are almost identical to those of the last free Reichstag election of the Weimar Republic in November 1932, in which the Nazi party NSDAP won 33 per cent of the vote.

 

However, at that time it was an all-German result, whereas yesterday the elections were only held in the East German states of Thuringia and Saxony.

 

 

German political parties

CDU (Christian Democrats) centre-right, conservative

SPD (Social Democrats) centre-left

AfD (Alternative for Germany) far-right

Die Grünen (Greens), pro-environment, centre-left

FDP (Free Democrats), liberal, pro-business

BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance), populist, pro-Russia

 

 

Elections in Thuringia

The results in Thuringia are particularly worrying. The state’s AfD has been categorised as a right-wing extremist party by the German Intelligence Agency (Amt für Verfassungsschutz) and the party leader Björn Höcke can be called a fascist according to a court judgement.

 

The AfD emerged as the clear winner of the elections in Thuringia. It is the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany that a party categorised as far-right has won an election to a state parliament. The AfD led by Björn Höcke achieved 32.9 per cent, a significant increase compared to the 2019 election (23.4 per cent).

 

After its historic success in 2019, the support for Thuringia’s current Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow's Left Party (Die Linke) has plummeted to 13 per cent - five years ago the party was supported by 31.0 per cent of voters. Ramelow has governed Thuringia since 2014, most recently with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party (Grünen) in a minority government.

 

Although the Prime Minister is still by far the most popular politician in Thuringia, he was unable to prevent his party's fall from grace. Bodo Ramelow cited the fight against the AfD and Björn Höcke as the main focus of his election campaign. “I am fighting against the normalisation of fascism,” he said on TV. “I didn't fight against the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) or the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW) in the election campaign, but against the AfD.”

 

The Thuringian CDU achieved 23.7 per cent of votes cast. This is an improvement on its 2019 result (21.7 per cent) and puts it in second place behind the AfD. With top candidate Mario Voigt, it presented itself as a clear alternative to the minority coalition government of Bodo Ramelow, but the CDU was hardly able to capitalise on the dissatisfaction in the state. The top candidate's appeal was also limited. Voigt focussed the election campaign on a duel between himself and Höcke, presenting himself as a doer with Thuringian roots, unlike the native West Germans Höcke or Ramelow. Voigt categorically ruled out cooperation with Höcke's AfD, as well as with the Left and the Greens.

 

In addition to the AfD, the BSW was also one of the big winners of this election. The party - which ran with the former Mayor of Eisenach Katja Wolf as its lead candidate - achieved 15.6 per cent at its first attempt. During the election campaign, the BSW scored points primarily with policy issues such as criticising the supply of weapons to Ukraine and calling for negotiations with Russia. However, its positions against immigration and in favour of social security also struck a chord with many voters.

 

The centre-left SPD, the Greens and liberal FDP (Freie Demokraten), the parties that form Germany’s federal government, experienced a political disaster, with the SPD performing best. The Thuringian Social Democrats achieved a historically low 6.1 per cent and will remain represented in the state parliament. The party was unable to score points in traditional SPD areas such as social justice.

 

Thuringia is now facing the difficult task of forming a government. The AfD lacks the partners to govern and is not strong enough to form a government on its own. Due to its strength, however, it has considerable influence in the new parliament. Decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority would have to be approved. For example, the constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.

 

The CDU, as the second strongest force, could explore alliances with the BSW and SPD, although it is still unclear whether this coalition would have a majority. The BSW, headed by its founder Sahra Wagenknecht, had stipulated conditions for cooperation. A three-party coalition between the CDU, the BSW and Ramelow's Linke would be mathematically possible.

 

 

Elections in Saxony

The CDU has narrowly won the state election in Saxony ahead of the AfD. The party of Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer achieved 31.9 per cent of the vote. The AfD led by Jörg Urban followed with 30.6 per cent. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) achieved 11.8 per cent, making it the third strongest party. The SPD achieved 7.3 per cent, while the Greens narrowly made it back into the state parliament with 5.1 per cent. The Left Party failed to reach the five per cent threshold of 4.5 per cent but still managed to enter parliament by winning two direct mandates.

 

 

Reactions

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) told the news agency Reuters that the democratic parties in both Thuringia and Saxony must form alliances without the AfD. “The results for the AfD in Saxony and Thuringia are bitter and cause concern. Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is damaging Germany within and outside its borders. It is weakening the economy, dividing society and ruining our country's reputation,” emphasised the German head of government.

 

Bavaria's conservative Minister President Markus Söder has described the AfD's good performance in the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony as a turning point in German post-war history.

 

Söder did not explicitly comment on whether the CDU in Thuringia should stick to its decision of incompatibility with the leftist party Die Linke. “The important goal now must be to form a stable government that can then also achieve something,” he said.

 

Söder said it was understandable that the CDU had reservations about working with the Left and the BSW. That would normally be completely unimaginable. “But yesterday the unimaginable became a democratic reality and perhaps necessity.”

 

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